Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis

Infectious Disease Modelling

卷:6

Ilham Saiful Fauzi¹  Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan²  Muhammad Fakhruddin³  Nuning Nuraini³  Edy Soewono⁴ 

[1] Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia;

[2] Corresponding author.;

[3] Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia;

[4] Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Military Mathematics and Natural Sciences, The Republic of Indonesia Defense University, IPSC Area, Sentul, Bogor, 16810, Indonesia;

关键词: Dengue;    Climate;    Host-vector model;    Infection rate;    Prediction;    Descriptive analysis;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Background: Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne diseases, which is considered to be a major health concern in tropical and sub-tropical countries. It is strongly believed that the spread and abundance of vectors are related to climate. Construction of climate-based mathematical model that integrates meteorological factors into disease infection model becomes compelling challenge since the climate is positively associated with both incidence and vector existence. Methods: A host-vector model is constructed to simulate the dynamic of transmission. The infection rate parameter is replaced with the time-dependent coefficient obtained by optimization to approximate the daily dengue data. Further, the optimized infection rate is denoted as a function of climate variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results: The infection parameter can be extended when updated daily climates are known, and it can be useful to forecast dengue incidence. This approach provides proper prediction, even when tested in increasing or decreasing prediction windows. In addition, associations between climate and dengue are presented as a reversed slide-shaped curve for dengue-humidity and a reversed U-shaped curves for dengue-temperature and dengue-precipitation. The range of optimal temperature for infection is 24.3–30.5 °C. Humidity and precipitation are positively associated with dengue upper the threshold 70% at lag 38 days and below 50 mm at lag 50 days, respectively. Conclusion: Identification of association between climate and dengue is potentially useful to counter the high risk of dengue and strengthen the public health system and reduce the increase of the dengue burden.

【 授权许可】

Unknown