An Integrated Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks: A Case Study in Suriname

Sustainability

卷:14

Gerard Alleng¹  Adrian Flores¹  Katharina Hess²  Helena Antich-Homar³  Kepa Solaun⁴ 

[1] Climate Change Division, Inter-American Development Bank, New York Ave NW 1300, Washington, DC 20577, USA;

[2] Climate Protection in Transport, Ministry of Transport Baden-Württemberg, 70173 Stuttgart, Germany;

[3] Meteoclim, Parc BIT, Sophie Germain sn, Lleret Bulding, 07121 Palma, Spain;

[4] School of Sciences, Universidad de Navarra, Campus Universitario, 31080 Pamplona, Spain;

关键词: climate change;    climate change adaptation;    Small Island Developing States;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su14031463

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This paper combines long-term state-of-the-art climate projections and indices to provide detailed insights into the future climate of Suriname to facilitate comprehensive information of areas and sectors at high climate risk for political decision-making. The study analyses Suriname’s historical climate (1990–2014) and provides climate projections for three time horizons (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) and two emissions scenarios (intermediate/SSP2-4.5 and severe/SSP5-8.5). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) modeling is used to analyze changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds. In addition, risk impact chains were produced for the country’s four most important socio-economic sectors: agriculture and fisheries, forestry, water, and infrastructure. Results show the temperature is expected to increase for all regions and timeframes, reaching warming up to 6 °C in the southern region in the long-term future (2070–2094). Projections point towards a reduction in precipitation in the southwest and coastal regions and a rise in mean sea level. Regarding risk, Paramaribo and Wanica face the highest climate risk. Coronie and Nickerie face the least climate risk. These regions remain the most and least vulnerable in both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but overall values of their risk indices increase substantially over time.

【 授权许可】

Unknown