Development of a model to predict recurrence after bronchial artery embolization for non-cancer related hemoptysis

BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Jin Liu¹  Da-Zhong Zhang²  Xiang-Zhong Huang³  Sheng Liu⁴  Guang-Dong Lu⁴  Qing-Quan Zu⁴  Hai-Tao Yan⁴  Jin-Xing Zhang⁴  Hai-Bin Shi⁴  Kun-Yuan Ge⁵ 

[1] Department of Clinical Medicine Research Institution, The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University, 210029, Nanjing, China;Department of Interventional Radiology, Jiangsu Taizhou People’s Hospital, 225300, Taizhou, China;Department of Interventional Radiology, Jiangyin People’s Hospital, 214400, Wuxi, China;Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital With Nanjing Medical University, No. 300 Guangzhou Road, 210029, Nanjing, China;Department of Interventional Radiology, Yixing People’s Hospital, 214200, Wuxi, China;

关键词: Bronchial arteries;    Embolization;    Therapeutic;    Hemoptysis;    Nomograms;    Recurrence;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12890-021-01790-2

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundRelapse after effective bronchial arterial embolization (BAE) for controlling hemoptysis is not uncommon. Studies reported diverse predictors of recurrence. However, a model to assess the probability of recurrence in non-cancer related hemoptysis patients after BAE has not been reported. This study was to develop a model to predict recurrence after BAE for non-cancer related hemoptysis.MethodsThe study cohort included 487 patients who underwent BAE for non-cancer-related hemoptysis between January 2015 and December 2019. We derived the model’s variables from univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The model presented as a nomogram scaled by the proportional regression coefficient of each predictor. Model performance was assessed with respect to discrimination and calibration.ResultsOne-month and 1-, 2-, 3- and 5-year recurrence-free rates were 94.5%, 88.0%, 81.4%, 76.2% and 73.8%, respectively. Risk factors for recurrence were underlying lung diseases and the presence of systemic arterial-pulmonary circulation shunts. This risk prediction model with two risk factors provided good discrimination (area under curve, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.62–0.76), and lower prediction error (integrated Brier score, 0.143).ConclusionThe proposed model based on routinely available clinical and imaging features demonstrates good performance for predicting recurrence of non-cancer-related hemoptysis after BAE. The model may assist clinicians in identifying higher-risk patients to improve the long-term efficacy of BAE.

【 授权许可】

CC BY