Modeling analysis reveals the transmission trend of COVID-19 and control efficiency of human intervention

BMC Infectious Diseases

Xinru Wan¹  Zhibin Zhang²  Chaoyuan Cheng³ 

[1] State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Biotic Interactions, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, Beijing, China;

关键词: COVID-19;    SARS-CoV-2;    Spread pattern;    Control efficiency;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-06560-3

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. Revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control efficiency is important for containing the spread of the virus.MethodsBy using a logistic growth model, we estimated the transmission parameters of COVID-19 in China and six other countries (Republic of Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, France and Germany). The transmission parameters represent the maximum daily increase rate in the early stages of the epidemic and the control efficiency under human intervention. The control efficiency was determined by the significant decrease of the daily increase rate in time and cumulative cases.ResultsWe found the daily increase rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 decreased significantly in both time and cumulative cases in all countries, but the decreasing trend was not further reduced in other countries except for China and Republic of Korea. The response of the daily increase rate to control measures was much earlier than the number of new cases.ConclusionsOur results suggested that lockdown at the epicenter and social distancing effectively reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the early stage, but identification and isolation of patients, suspected cases and people with close contact at a community level is essential in further reduction of the daily increase rate of COVID-19.

【 授权许可】

CC BY