Evaluation of China’s Hubei control strategy for COVID-19 epidemic: an observational study

BMC Infectious Diseases

Jing Gu¹  Zhicheng Du¹  Jinghua Li¹  Yuantao Hao¹  Yu Liu¹  Stuart Gilmour²  Daisuke Yoneoka²  Mei Jiang³  Fangfang Zheng⁴ 

[1] Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, 510080, Guangzhou, China;Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, 104-0045, Tokyo, Japan;National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, 510120, Guangzhou, China;School of Traditional Chinese Medicine Healthcare, Guangdong Food and Drug Vocational College, 510520, Guangzhou, China;

关键词: COVID-19;    Control strategy;    Public health interventions;    Time-varying effect;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-06502-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo fight against COVID-19, many policymakers are wavering on stricter public health interventions. Examining the different strategies both in and out of China’s Hubei province, which contained the epidemic in late February 2020, could yield valuable guidance for the management of future pandemics. This study assessed the response process and estimated the time-varying effects of the Hubei control strategy. Analysis of these strategies provides insights for the design and implementation of future policy interventions.MethodsWe retrospectively compared the spread and control of COVID-19 between China’s Hubei (excluding Wuhan) and non-Hubei areas using data that includes case reports, human mobility, and public health interventions from 1 January to 29 February 2020. Static and dynamic risk assessment models were developed to statistically investigate the effects of the Hubei control strategy on the virus case growth after adjusting importation risk and policy response timing with the non-Hubei strategy as a control.ResultsThe analysis detected much higher but differential importation risk in Hubei. The response timing largely coincided with the importation risk in non-Hubei areas, but Hubei areas showed an opposite pattern. Rather than a specific intervention assessment, a comprehensive comparison showed that the Hubei control strategy implemented severe interventions characterized by unprecedentedly strict and ‘monitored’ self-quarantine at home, while the non-Hubei strategy included physical distancing measures to reduce contact among individuals within or between populations. In contrast with the non-Hubei control strategy, the Hubei strategy showed a much higher, non-linear and gradually diminishing protective effect with at least 3 times fewer cases.ConclusionsA risk-based control strategy was crucial to the design of an effective response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study demonstrates that the stricter Hubei strategy achieves a stronger controlling effect compared to other strategies. These findings highlight the health benefits and policy impacts of precise and differentiated strategies informed by constant monitoring of outbreak risk.

【 授权许可】

CC BY