Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward

Frontiers in Psychology

article

Lace Padilla¹  Sarah Dryhurst²  Helia Hosseinpour¹  Andrew Kruczkiewicz³ 

[1] Applied Cognition and Education (SPACE) Lab, Cognitive and Information Sciences, University of California Merced, United States;Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom;International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, United States;Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

关键词: compound risks;    hazards;    uncertainty;    visualization;    multiple;    cognitive effort;    trust;    communication;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2021.579207

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Making decisions with uncertainty is challenging for the general public, policymakers, and even highly trained scientists. Nevertheless, when faced with the need to respond to a potential hazard, people must make high-risk decisions with uncertainty. In some cases, people have to consider multiple hazards with various types of uncertainties. Multiple hazards can be interconnected by location, time, and/or environmental systems, and the hazards may interact, producing complex relationships among their associated uncertainties. The interaction between multiple hazards and their uncertainties can have nonlinear effects, where the resultant risk and uncertainty are greater than the sum of the risk and uncertainty associated with individual hazards. Effectively communicating the uncertainties related to such complicated systems should be a high priority because the frequency and variability of multiple hazard events due to climate change continue to increase. However, the communication of multiple hazard uncertainties and their interactions remains largely unexplored. The lack of practical guidance on conveying multiple hazard uncertainties is likely due in part to the field’s vast expanse, making it challenging to identify entry points. Here, we offer a perspective on three critical challenges related to uncertainty communication across various multiple hazard contexts to galvanize the research community. We advocate for systematic considerations of multiple hazard uncertainty communication that focus on trade-offs between complexity and factors, including mental effort, trust, and usability.

【 授权许可】

CC BY