Patient Flow Dynamics in Hospital Systems During Times of COVID-19: Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Analysis

Frontiers in Public Health

article

Sudhir Bhandari¹  Sunita Dia²  Mahendra Dia³  Todd C. Wehner³  Amit Tak⁴  Sanjay Singhal⁴  Jyotsna Shukla⁴  Ajit Singh Shaktawat¹  Jitendra Gupta⁴  Bhoopendra Patel⁵  Shivankan Kakkar⁶  Amitabh Dube⁴ 

[1] Department of Medicine, S.M.S. Medical College & Attached Hospitals;Department of Rheumatology, Medstar Washington Hospital Center, United States;Department of Horticultural Science, North Carolina State University, United States;Department of Physiology, S.M.S. Medical College & Attached Hospitals;Department of Physiology, Government Medical College;Department of Pharmacology, S.M.S. Medical College & Attached Hospitals

关键词: COVID-19;    cox proportion hazards models;    evidence based decision making;    hospital beds;    public health;    hospital management;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2020.585850

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Objectives: The present study is aimed at estimating patient flow dynamic parameters and requirement for hospital beds. Second, the effects of age and gender on parameters were evaluated. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 987 COVID-19 patients were enrolled from SMS Medical College, Jaipur (Rajasthan, India). The survival analysis was carried out from February 29 through May 19, 2020, for two hazards: Hazard 1 was hospital discharge, and Hazard 2 was hospital death. The starting point for survival analysis of the two hazards was considered to be hospital admission. The survival curves were estimated and additional effects of age and gender were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Results: The Kaplan Meier estimates of lengths of hospital stay (median = 10 days, IQR = 5–15 days) and median survival rate (more than 60 days due to a large amount of censored data) were obtained. The Cox model for Hazard 1 showed no significant effect of age and gender on duration of hospital stay. Similarly, the Cox model 2 showed no significant difference of age and gender on survival rate. The case fatality rate of 8.1%, recovery rate of 78.8%, mortality rate of 0.10 per 100 person-days, and hospital admission rate of 0.35 per 100,000 person-days were estimated. Conclusion: The study estimates hospital bed requirements based on median length of hospital stay and hospital admission rate. Furthermore, the study concludes there are no effects of age and gender on average length of hospital stay and no effects of age and gender on survival time in above-60 age groups.

【 授权许可】

CC BY