Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

Frontiers in Medicine

Lotfi Aleya¹  Ning Xie²  Tianshu Gu³  Scott C. Howard⁴  Zhijun Li⁵  Lishi Wang⁶  Arnold Postlethwaite⁷  Yongjun Wang⁸  Xia Meng⁸  Weikuan Gu⁹ 

[1] Chrono-Environnement Laboratory, UMR CNRS 6249, Bourgogne Franche-Comté University, Besançon Cedex, France;College of Business, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, United States;College of Graduate Health Science, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States;Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States;Department of Basic Medicine, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia, China;Department of Basic Medicine, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia, China;Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States;Department of Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States;Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States;Research Service, Memphis VA Medical Center, Memphis, TN, United States;

关键词: coronavirus;    COVID-19;    mortality;    pandemic;    prediction;    infectious disease;    death;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fmed.2021.585115

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.

【 授权许可】

CC BY