An automated nowcasting system of mesoscale convective systems for the Mediterranean basin using Meteosat imagery. Part I: System description

Meteorological applications

article

Stavros Kolios¹  Haralambos Feidas² 

[1] Department of Geography, University of the Aegean;Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

关键词: forecasting algorithm;    mesoscale convective system;    Meteosat Second Generation;    thermal infrared satellite imagery;    Mediterranean basin;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1282

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

This study presents the methodologies used to develop a nowcasting system of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Mediterranean region on the basis of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) imagery. The nowcasting system is an algorithm that detects and tracks MCSs in Meteosat images and then forecasts the movement and the evolution of the physical properties of a selected MCS through its entire lifecycle, at 15 min intervals. The forecasting procedure combines a linear extrapolation method of the MCS life cycle history and information extracted from conceptual models. As a final output, the system generates a complete life cycle forecast of the temporal evolution of several physical characteristics of the MCS, such as areal extent, displacement, mean brightness temperature and convective potential, and visualizes the forecast by drawing ellipses that represent the MCS with 15 min time steps. Forecasts of a complete life cycle are updated every 15 min in accordance to the acquisition of a new satellite image.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND