Improvement of 1-month lead predictability of the wintertime AO using a realistically varying solar constant for a CGCM

Meteorological applications

article

Joong-Bae Ahn¹  Hae-Jeong Kim¹ 

[1] Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University

关键词: Arctic Oscillation;    predictability;    solar constant;    1-month lead forecast;    coupled general circulation model (CGCM);   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1372

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

The impact of solar constant variation on the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is investigated in terms of 1 month lead hindcast data obtained from a coupled general circulation model. The 1 month lead hindcasts produced from a realistic initial solar constant experiment (Solar Run, SR) and from a climatological solar constant experiment (Control run, CR) are comparatively analysed. The 1 month lead hindcasts were initiated from mid-November, mid-December and mid-January of each year for the period 1980–2009. The hindcast of the SR showed better skill than that of the CR in terms of forecasting not only the AO index but also the atmospheric circulation pattern related with the AO. This shows that the prescription of realistic solar constant as the initial condition is necessary for improved AO prediction.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND