Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa

Meteorological applications

article

J. Malherbe¹  W. A. Landman²  C. Olivier⁴  H. Sakuma⁵  J- J. Luo⁶ 

[1] Institute for Soil, Agricultural Research Council;Council for Scientific and Industrial Research;Department of Geography, University of Pretoria;South African Weather Service;Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC);Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

关键词: coupled global model;    crop forecast;    streamflow forecast;    South Africa;    principal component regression;    model output statistics;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1402

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for austral summer with a 1 month lead are downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of an MOS (Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28 year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data, suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated crop or runoff models using GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and streamflows in the region.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND