Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Beijing’s Xinfadi Market, China: a modeling study to inform future resurgence response

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Chun Huang¹  Gang Li¹  Quan-Yi Wang²  Peng Yang³  Xiao-Li Wang⁴  Zun-You Wu⁵  Jennifer M. McGoogan⁵  Si-Qi Li⁶  Hong-Hao Shi⁷  Jing-Yuan Wang⁷  Xin Lin⁷  Sheng-Jie Lai⁸  Zeng-Tao Jiao⁹  Xin-Jun He⁹ 

[1] Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China;Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China;Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China;Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China;School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China;School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China;Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA;School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China;WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK;School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;Yidu Cloud AI Lab, Yidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd, Beijing, China;

关键词: Public health;    Nonpharmaceutical intervention;    COVID-19;    SARS-CoV-2;    Beijing;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40249-021-00843-2

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case confirmed on June 11, 2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing, China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were used to contain the source in Xinfadi (XFD) market. To rapidly control the outbreak, both traditional and newly introduced NPIs including large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing’s XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions.MethodsA modified susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model was developed and applied to evaluate a range of different scenarios from the public health perspective. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission (i.e., number of cases in the outbreak) and endpoint of transmission (i.e., date of containment). The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI).ResultsOur results indicated that a 3 to 14 day delay in the identification of XFD as the infection source and initiation of NPIs would have caused a 3 to 28-fold increase in total case number (31–77 day delay in containment). A failure to implement the quarantine scheme employed in the XFD outbreak for defined key population would have caused a fivefold greater number of cases (73 day delay in containment). Similarly, failure to implement the quarantine plan executed in the XFD outbreak for close contacts would have caused twofold greater transmission (44 day delay in containment). Finally, failure to implement expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population would have yielded 1.6-fold greater transmission and a 32 day delay to containment.ConclusionsThis study informs new evidence that in form the selection of NPI to use as countermeasures in response to a COVID-19 outbreak and optimal timing of their implementation. The evidence provided by this study should inform responses to future outbreaks of COVID-19 and future infectious disease outbreak preparedness efforts in China and elsewhere.Graphical abstract

【 授权许可】

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