The impact of social distancing on COVID-19 infections and deaths

Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines

André de Souza Melo¹  Marcos Felipe Falcão Sobral¹  Gisleia Benini Duarte¹  Marcelo Luiz Monteiro Marinho¹  Ana Iza Gomes da Penha Sobral²  Amanda Aires Vieira³ 

[1] Departamento de Economia, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Avenida Dom Manoel de Medeiros, s/n – Dois Irmãos, Recife, PE, Brazil;Departamento de Psicologia Cognitiva, Federal University of Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, 1235 - Cidade Universitária, 50670-901, Recife, PE, Brazil;Faculdade Boa Viagem, R. Jean Emile Favre, 422 - Ipsep, 51190-450, Recife, PE, Brazil;

关键词: COVID-19;    Social isolation;    Quarantine;    SARS-CoV-2;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40794-021-00137-3

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil).MethodsDaily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.ResultsThe isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths.ConclusionsThe social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.

【 授权许可】

CC BY