Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

Parasites & Vectors

Nan Zhang¹  Shu-Yi Liang¹  Jian-Li Hu¹  Zhi-Feng Li¹  Xiao-Chen Wang¹  Xiao-Qing Cheng¹  Meng Yang²  Weikang Liu²  Xingchun Liu²  Jia Rui²  Luxia Qiu²  Shengnan Lin²  Chan Liu²  Tianlong Yang²  Yuanzhao Zhu²  Zhuoyang Li²  Li Luo²  Peihua Li²  Yao Wang²  Jiefeng Huang²  Bin Deng²  Zeyu Zhao²  Jingwen Xu²  Tianmu Chen² 

[1] Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 172, Jiangsu Rd, 210009, Nanjing, China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 361102, Xiamen, Fujian, People’s Republic of China;

关键词: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome;    Bunyavirus;    Mathematical model;    Environment;    Ticks;    Transmission;    Dynamic;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundSevere fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models.MethodsWe built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible–exposed–infectious–asymptomatic–recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province. This model was used to evaluate the effect by cutting off different transmission routes and taking different interventions into account, to offer clues for disease prevention and control.ResultsThe transmission model fits the reported data well with a minimum R2 value of 0.29 and a maximum value of 0.80, P < 0.05. Meanwhile, cutting off the environmental transmission route had the greatest effect on the prevention and control of SFTS, while isolation and shortening the course of the disease did not have much effect.ConclusionsThe model we have built can be used to simulate the transmission of SFTS to help inform disease control. It is noteworthy that cutting off the environment-to-humans transmission route in the model had the greatest effect on SFTS prevention and control.Graphic Abstract

【 授权许可】

CC BY