Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards

Environmental Health

Paul Gustafson¹  Kaitlin Castellani²  Jingxuan Zhao³  Krista Forysinski⁴  Martino Tran⁵  Jessica Yu⁶  Michael Brauer⁶  Angela Yao⁶  James Lu⁷  Emily Peterson⁷ 

[1] Department of Statistics, The University of British Columbia, 3182 Earth Sciences Building, 2207 Main Mall, V6T 1Z3, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, Forest Sciences Centre, 2424 Main Mall, V6T 1Z4, Vancouver, BC, Canada;Faculty of Medicine, The University of British Columbia, 317 - 2194 Health Sciences Mall, V6T 1Z3, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, 429-2202 Main Mall, V6T 1Z3, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;School of Community and Regional Planning, The University of British Columbia, 433 - 6333 Memorial Road, V6T 1Z3, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia (UBC), 2206 East Mall, V6T 1Z3, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;Vancouver Coastal Health, 601 West Broadway, 11th floor, V5Z 4C2, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;

关键词: Vulnerability mapping;    Climate change and health;    Index scores;    Adaptive capacity;    Principal component analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12940-021-00708-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAlthough the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community’s exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard’s impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity.MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped.ResultsTwo hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16–49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed – for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region.ConclusionsThe creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY