Dynamic modeling and optimal control of cystic echinococcosis

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Yaohui Zheng¹  Huaiping Zhu²  Xinmiao Rong³  Meng Fan⁴ 

[1] Animal Health Supervision Institute of Xingan League, Tiexi North Road, 137400, Ulanhot, Inner Mongolia, People’s Republic of China;CDM, LAMPS and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada;College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, 150001, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China;School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, 130024, Changchun, Jilin, People’s Republic of China;School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, 130024, Changchun, Jilin, People’s Republic of China;

关键词: Cystic echinococcosis;    Dynamic modeling;    Optimal control;    Global stability;    Sheep vaccination;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40249-021-00807-6

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundCystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry. Investigating optimal control strategy and assessing the crucial factors are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this disease.MethodsTwo compartment models were formulated to study the dynamics of cystic echinococcosis transmission, to evaluate the effectiveness of various control measures, and to find the optimal control strategy. Sensitive analyses were conducted by obtaining PRCCs and contour plot was used to evaluate the effect of key parameters on the basic reproduction number. Based on forward–backward sweep method, numerical simulations were employed to investigate effects of key factors on the transmission of cystic echinococcosis and to obtain the optimal control strategy.ResultsThe food resources of stray dog and invalid sheep vaccination rate, which are always neglected, were significant to the transmission and control of cystic echinococcosis. Numerical simulations suggest that, the implementation of optimal control strategy can significantly reduce the infections. Improving the cost of health education and domestic dog deworming could not decrease human infections.ConclusionsOur study showed that only a long-term use of the optimal control measures can eliminate the disease. Meanwhile, during the intervention, sheep vaccination and stray dogs disposing should be emphasized ahead of domestic dogs deworming to minimize the control cost. Simultaneously reducing other wild intermediate hosts and strengthening the sheep vaccination as well as disposing the stray dogs would be most effective.

【 授权许可】

CC BY