Spatio‐temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate in semi‐arid region of northern Ethiopia

Environmental Systems Research

Kelali Adhana¹  Biniyam Yisehak¹  Amdom Gebremedhin¹  Henok Shiferaw¹  Temesgen Bezabh¹  Haftu Abrha²  Haftom Hagos³ 

[1] Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia;Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia;African Center of Excellence in Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Agriculture (CEA-CCBAD), University Felix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire;Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia;Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Mekelle, The Netherlands;

关键词: Climate change;    Projection;    Meteorological drought;    RDI;    Drought characteristics;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40068-021-00226-4

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundBelow-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The climate change was analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software packages. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).ResultsThe result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be increased by about 0.8–2.9 °C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9–3.75 °C. The rainfall projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5–13.4 % over the study area. The projected drought events reached its maximum severity indicated extreme drought in the years 2043, 2044, 2073, and 2074. The RDI value shows drought will occurred after 1–6 and 2–7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72 % of the current and future spatial coverage of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3 % severely and 5.57 % also moderate drought.ConclusionsTherefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.

【 授权许可】

CC BY