Characteristics and prognostic factors of COVID-19 among infected cases: a nationwide Tunisian analysis

BMC Infectious Diseases

Hamida Ben Salah¹  Radhouane Fakhfakh²  Chahida Harizi²  Leila Bouabid³  Salma Abid³  Sondes Derouiche³  Donia Gharbi³  Ilhem Boutiba Ben Boubaker³  Souha Bougatef³  Mohamed Kouni Chahed⁴  Oumaima Ben Ayed⁵  Mouna Safer⁵  Nissaf Bouafif Ben-Alaya⁵  Nourhene Najar⁵  Rym Mallekh⁵  Aicha Hchaichi⁵  Ines Cherif⁵  Molka Osman⁵  Sonia Dhaouadi⁵  Hejer Letaief⁵  Yosr Ayedi⁵  Ilhem Bouaziz⁶ 

[1] Charles Nicolle Hospital, Laboratory of Microbiology, Virology Unit, National Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses Center-Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia;Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Abderrahman Mami Hospital, Ariana, Tunisia;Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia;Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia;Charles Nicolle Hospital, Laboratory of Microbiology, Virology Unit, National Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses Center-Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia;Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia;Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El-Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia;Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia;National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia;National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia;

关键词: COVID-19;    SARS CoV-2;    Prognostic factors;    Clinical characteristics;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-05844-y

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors.MethodsA retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors.ResultsOne thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn’t require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6%) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4%) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29–32]). Older age (HR = 0.66, CI:[0.46–0.96], P = 0.031) and symptoms (HR = 0.61, CI:[0.43–0.81], P = 0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR = 1.52, CI: [1.10–2.08], P = 0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR = 2.99, CI: [1.85–4.83], P < 10¯3) were independently associated with faster recovery time.ConclusionThe duration of illness was estimated to be 1 month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.

【 授权许可】

CC BY