An easy-to-use nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in a university hospital

BMC Infectious Diseases

Dildar Konukoğlu¹  İlker İnanç Balkan²  Fehmi Tabak²  Rıdvan Karaali²  Ethem Erginöz³  Hazal Cansu Acar³  Günay Can³  Mehmet Sarper Erdoğan³  Şermin Börekçi⁴  Bilun Gemicioğlu⁴ 

[1] Department of Biochemistry, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey;Department of Infectious Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey;Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey;Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey;

关键词: COVID-19;    Risk factor;    Mortality;    Nomogram;    Fatal outcome;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-05845-x

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundOne-fifth of COVID-19 patients are seriously and critically ill cases and have a worse prognosis than non-severe cases. Although there is no specific treatment available for COVID-19, early recognition and supportive treatment may reduce the mortality. The aim of this study is to develop a functional nomogram that can be used by clinicians to estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized and treated for COVID-19 disease, and to compare the accuracy of model predictions with previous nomograms.MethodsThis retrospective study enrolled 709 patients who were over 18 years old and received inpatient treatment for COVID-19 disease. Multivariable Logistic Regression analysis was performed to assess the possible predictors of a fatal outcome. A nomogram was developed with the possible predictors and total point were calculated.ResultsOf the 709 patients treated for COVID-19, 75 (11%) died and 634 survived. The elder age, certain comorbidities (cancer, heart failure, chronic renal failure), dyspnea, lower levels of oxygen saturation and hematocrit, higher levels of C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase and ferritin were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction ability of total points was excellent (Area Under Curve = 0.922).ConclusionsThe nomogram developed in this study can be used by clinicians as a practical and effective tool in mortality risk estimation. So that with early diagnosis and intervention mortality in COVID-19 patients may be reduced.

【 授权许可】

CC BY