Modelling the Wolbachia incompatible insect technique: strategies for effective mosquito population elimination

BMC Biology

D. E. Pagendam¹  B. J. Trewin²  N. Beebe³  K. M. Staunton⁴  S. A. Ritchie⁵  C. Paton⁵  A. A. Hoffmann⁶  N. Snoad⁷ 

[1] CSIRO Data61, 41 Boggo Road, 4102, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia;CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, 41 Boggo Road, 4102, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia;CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, 41 Boggo Road, 4102, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia;School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, 4072, St Lucia, QLD, Australia;College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, 4878, Smithfield, QLD, Australia;College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, 4878, Smithfield, QLD, Australia;Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, 4878, Smithfield, QLD, Australia;School of Biological Sciences, Bio21 Institute, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia;Verily Life Sciences, 259 East Grand Avenue, 94080, South San Francisco, CA, USA;

关键词: Incompatible insect technique;    Wolbachia;    Establishment risk;    Elimination;    Stochastic model;    Simulation;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12915-020-00887-0

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe Wolbachia incompatible insect technique (IIT) shows promise as a method for eliminating populations of invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Culicidae) and reducing the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Successful implementation of this biological control strategy relies on high-fidelity separation of male from female insects in mass production systems for inundative release into landscapes. Processes for sex-separating mosquitoes are typically error-prone and laborious, and IIT programmes run the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females and replacing wild mosquito populations.ResultsWe introduce a simple Markov population process model for studying mosquito populations subjected to a Wolbachia-IIT programme which exhibit an unstable equilibrium threshold. The model is used to study, in silico, scenarios that are likely to yield a successful elimination result. Our results suggest that elimination is best achieved by releasing males at rates that adapt to the ever-decreasing wild population, thus reducing the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females while reducing costs.ConclusionsWhile very high-fidelity sex separation is required to avoid establishment, release programmes tend to be robust to the release of a small number of Wolbachia-infected females. These findings will inform and enhance the next generation of Wolbachia-IIT population control strategies that are already showing great promise in field trials.

【 授权许可】

CC BY