Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Revista Árvore

Lorena Mendes Simon²  Guilherme De Oliveira¹  Bruno De Souza Barreto¹  João Carlos Nabout¹  Thiago Fernando Lopes Valle Britto Rangel¹  José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-filho¹ 

[1] ,Universidade Federal de Goiás,Brasil

关键词: Ensemble forecasting;    Bioclimatic envelope;    Species distribution models;    Modeling uncertainty;    Consenso de predição;    Envelope bioclimático;    Modelos de distribuição de espécies;    Incerteza dos modelos;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-67622013000200008

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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