Study on Saturation Estimation of Initial Perturbations in Ensemble Marine Forecasting based on BGM Method

4th International Conference on Advances in Energy Resources and Environment Engineering

能源学;生态环境科学

Da, Lianglong^1^2 ; Liu, Jingyi^1^2 ; Guo, Wuhong^1^2

Department of Navigation Observation, Navy Submarine Academy of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Qingdao

266199, China^1

Joint Laboratory for Marine Civil-Military Integration, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao

266237, China^2

关键词: Different layers;    Ensemble forecasting;    Initial perturbation;    Nonlinear chaotic systems;    Numerical predictions;    Perturbation method;    Saturation degree;    Saturation velocity;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/237/3/032047/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/237/3/032047

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Because the ocean is a highly complex nonlinear chaotic system, its numerical prediction results are strongly uncertain due to the influence of the initial values and the model itself. Ensemble forecasting is an effective way to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting. The initial perturbations quality, especially the saturation estimation, is of practical significance for improving ensemble forecasting techniques. In this paper, the factors affecting initial perturbation saturation of ensemble forecasting are analyzed by BGM based on ROMS model, and the perturbation saturation velocities of the two methods are compared. The results show that the saturation velocity of the initial perturbation is faster than that of the initial perturbation space structure. The larger the initial perturbation is, the higher the saturation degree and velocity are, and the saturation time of the same variable varies at different layers. The saturation of different variables is also different; the perturbation saturation speed of the regional adjust perturbation method is faster than that of the classical static perturbation method.