Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira

André Santana Andrade¹  Patricia Menezes Santos¹  José Ricardo Macedo Pezzopane¹  Giovana Maranhão Bettiol¹  Sílvio Roberto Medeiros Evangelista¹ 

关键词: Brachiaria brizantha;    Urochloa brizantha;    empirical model;    ETA;    Precis;    tropical grass.;    Brachiaria brizantha;    Urochloa brizantha;    modelo empírico;    ETA;    Precis;    gramínea tropical.;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-204X2014001000001

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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