A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

Revista de Saúde Pública

Hyun M Yang¹ 

[1] ,Universidade Estadual de Campinas Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica Departamento de Matemática AplicadaCampinas SP ,Brasil

关键词: Malaria;    Mathematical models;    Greenhouse effect;    Socioeconomic factors;    Communicable disease control;    Risk;    Sensitivity analysis;    Malária;    Modelos matemáticos;    Efeito estufa;    Fatores socioeconômicos;    Controle de doenças transmissíveis;    Risco;    Análise de sensitividade;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-89102001000300002

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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