Spatial analysis of distribution of dengue cases in Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2010: use of Bayesian model

Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia

Taizi Honorato¹  Priscila Pagung De Aquino Lapa¹  Carolina Maia Martins Sales¹  Barbara Reis-santos¹  Ricardo Tristão-sá¹  Adelmo Inácio Bertolde¹  Ethel Leonor Noia Maciel¹ 

关键词: Epidemiology and Biostatistics;    Dengue;    Linear models;    Social determinants of health;    Spatial analysis;    Bayesian Inference;    Epidemiologia e Bioestatística;    Dengue;    Modelos lineares;    Determinantes sociais da saúde;    Análise espacial;    Inferência Bayesiana;   

DOI  :  10.1590/1809-4503201400060013

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVE:To study the relationship between the risk of dengue and sociodemographic variables through the use of spatial regression models fully Bayesian in the municipalities of Espírito Santo in 2010.METHOD:This is an ecological study and exploration that used spatial analysis tools in preparing thematic maps with data obtained from SinanNet. An analysis by area, taking as unit the municipalities of the state, was performed. Thematic maps were constructed by the computer program R 2.15.00 and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), calculated in WinBugs, Absolut and Normalized Mean Error (NMAE) were the criteria used to compare the models.RESULTS:We were able to geocode 21,933 dengue cases (rate of 623.99 cases per 100 thousand habitants) with a higher incidence in the municipalities of Vitória, Serra and Colatina; model with spatial effect with the covariates trash and income showed the best performance at DIC and Nmae criteria.CONCLUSION:It was possible to identify the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector and to identify areas with higher risk of disease.

【 授权许可】

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