"Grow and multiply": social development, birth rates and demographic transition in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, time-series for 1901-94

Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia

José Leopoldo Ferreira Antunes¹ 

[1] ,Universidade de São Paulo Faculdade de Odontologia Departamento de Odontologia SocialSão Paulo SP ,Brasil

关键词: Mortality rate;    Infant mortality;    Fetal death;    Life expectancy;    Birth rate;    Time-series;    Population dynamics;    Municipality of São Paulo;    Brazil;    Coeficientes de mortalidade;    Razão de mortalidade proporcional;    Mortalidade infantil;    Mortalidade fetal;    Esperança de vida;    Séries de tempo;    Transição demográfica;    Município de São Paulo;    Brasil;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S1415-790X1998000100007

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This study reports the construction of time-series related to standardized mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio of Swaroop and Uemura, infant mortality rate, fetal death rate, expectation of life at birth and birth rate for the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil, from 1901 to 1994. In order to determine the structural variation of these measures, the model, forecast and correlation of these series were submitted to statistical analysis. The results obtained were compared to the historical analysis of the major socioe-conomic phenomena during this period in an effort to explain populational movements in the city, with emphasis on the slow and late nature of the process of demographic transition in the city. It was concluded that time-series analysis for demographic measures is efficient in many ways: by allowing the application of statistical methodology to the human sciences, by passing the difficulties inherent in the characteristics of these values (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and non-normality of forecast error distribution), by integrating quantitative analysis with the historical interpretation of the phenomena approached, by projecting estimates of future trends on the basis of the behavior of the variables analyzed, and by systematizing the methodology for application in future studies of social research.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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