Dynamic systems approach assess and manage water resources in river basins

Scientia Agricola

Rodrigo Máximo Sánchez-román²  Marcos Vinicius Folegatti¹  Alba María Guadalupe Orellana González¹  Rogério Teixeira Da Silva² 

[1] ,USP ESALQ Programa de Pós-Graduação em Irrigação e DrenagemPiracicaba SP ,Brasil

关键词: water stress;    water management;    watershed;    modeling;    estresse hídrico;    manejo de água;    bacia hidrográfica;    modelagem;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0103-90162009000400001

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Basins (RB-PCJ) are located in the States of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil. By 2005, 5.8% of Brazil's General National Product-GNP was produced there. Such economic development has created a huge demand for water resources. The availability of water resources was assessed by running a dynamic systems simulation model to manage these resources in the RB-PCJ (WRM-PCJ), considering five 50-year simulations. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model computes water supply, demands, and contamination load from several consumers. When considering a Business-as-Usual scenario, by 2054, water demands will have increased up to 76%, 39% of the available water will come from wastewater reuse, and the contamination load will have increased by 91%. The Falkenmark Index started at 1403 m³ person-1 year-1 in 2004, ending at 734 m³ P-1 yr-1 in 2054; the Xu Sustainability Index started at 0.44 and ended at 0.20; and Keller's River Basin Development Phases started as Phase II, and ended at final Phase III, of Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that RB-PCJ is at a crucial management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and proved to be an excellent tool to assess water resources availability.

【 授权许可】

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