Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, 1979-1994

Cadernos de Saúde Pública

Rita Barradas Barata¹  Manoel Carlos Sampaio De Almeida Ribeiro¹  José Cássio De Moraes¹ 

[1] ,Santa Casa de São PauloSão Paulo SP ,Brasil

关键词: Homicide;    Violence;    Urban Health;    Mortality;    Time Series;    Homicídio;    Violência;    Saúde Urbana;    Mortalidade;    Séries Temporais;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0102-311X1999000400005

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

To study homicide trends by gender and age, 1979-1994, Sao Paulo, Brazil, cubic polynomials were used to determine the best model for adjusting to time trends in homicide mortality rates by age and gender in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1979-1994. The model best adjusted to each group was selected considering the regression coefficient (beta), R² value, residual analysis, and model's simplicity. The results show linear growth for total rates and rates by gender due to behavior of rates in the 20-29 and 30-39 year age groups. The reciprocal model adjusted best to rates for the 40-49 and 50-59 year age groups, while rates for adolescents followed the multiplicative model. There was no significant relationship between homicide rates and time for the remaining groups (under 10 and over 59 years). Rates for males were considerably higher in all age groups. The remarkably steady growth in homicide rates among adolescents and young adults is consistent with trends observed in other urban areas in developing and developed countries and denotes deteriorating living conditions and increased poverty.

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