Spatial modeling, prediction and seasonal variation of malaria in northwest Ethiopia

BMC Research Notes

Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki¹  Asefa Adimasu Taddese¹  Kassahun Alemu Gelaye¹ 

[1] 0000 0000 8539 4635, grid.59547.3a, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia;

关键词: Spatial analysis;    Interpolation;    Bayesian kriging;    Clustering;    Geostatistics modeling;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13104-019-4305-1

来源: publisher

【 摘 要 】

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to determine the spatial modeling, seasonal variation of malaria and making prediction map of malaria in northwest Ethiopia.ResultsThe overall average cumulative annual malaria incidence during the study period was 30 per 100 populations at risk. The highest proportion (29.2%) was observed from June 2015 to October 2016. In temporal analysis of clusters, the epidemic was observed from 2015/7/1 to 2016/12/31 throughout the study period in all districts. Hotspot areas with high clusters (p < 0.001) were observed in Metema district it accounts 18.6% of the total malaria cases. An area of high median predicted incidence proportion (> 50%) was seen in the southwest part of the region. Most of the northern part of the study area was predicted to have a low median incidence proportion (< 10%).

【 授权许可】

CC BY