Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

Chinh C. Tran²  Russell S. Yost³  John F. Yanagida²  Sumeet Saksena¹  Jefferson Fox¹ 

[1] East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848, USA; E-Mails:;Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, 1901 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA; E-Mail:;Department of Tropical Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, 3190 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA; E-Mail:

关键词: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1;    temperature;    precipitation;    humidity;    poultry density;    elevation;    logistic regression;    Bayesian kriging;    Red River Delta;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijgi2041106

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 poses severe threats to both animals and humans. Investigating where, when and why the disease occurs is important to help animal health authorities develop effective control policies. This study takes into account spatial and temporal occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A two-stage procedure was used: (1) logistic regression modeling to identify and quantify factors influencing the occurrence of HPAI H5N1; and (2) a geostatistical approach to develop monthly predictive maps. The results demonstrated that higher average monthly temperatures and poultry density in combination with lower average monthly precipitation, humidity in low elevation areas, roughly from November to January and April to June, contribute to the higher occurrence of HPAI H5N1. Provinces near the Gulf of Tonkin, including Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh are areas with higher probability of occurrence of HPAI H5N1.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.