Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Supachai Nakapan¹  Nitin Kumar Tripathi¹  Taravudh Tipdecho¹ 

[1] Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand;

关键词: influenza;    spatial statistics;    climate factors;    climate variability;    Geographic Information Systems (GIS);    health risk map;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph9113824

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.