Power Load Forecasting Considering Climate Factors Based on IPSO-Elman Method in China

Energies

Jicheng Liu¹  Yu Yin¹ 

[1] School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;

关键词: climate factors;    correlation analysis;    IPSO-Elman algorithm;    power load forecasting;    regression analysis;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en15031236

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In order to implement the national need for the optimal allocation of power resources, power load forecasting, as an important research topic, has important theoretical and practical significance. The purpose of this study is to construct a prediction model considering climate factors based on a large amount of historical data, and to prove that the prediction accuracy is related to both climate factors and load regularity. The results of load forecasting are affected by many climate factors, so firstly the climate variables affecting load forecasting are screened. Secondly, a load prediction model based on the IPSO-Elman network learning algorithm is constructed by taking the difference between the predicted value of the neural network and the actual value as the fitness function of particle swarm optimization. In view of the great influence of weights and thresholds on the prediction accuracy of the Elman neural network, the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) is used to optimize parameters in order to improve the prediction accuracy of ELMAN neural network. Thirdly, prediction with and without climate factors is compared and analyzed, and the prediction accuracy of the model compared by using cosine distance and various error indicators. Finally, the stability discriminant index of historical load regularity is introduced to prove that the accuracy of the prediction model is related to the regularity of historical load in the forecast area. The prediction method proposed in this paper can provide reference for power system scheduling.

【 授权许可】

Unknown