House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

International Journal of Financial Studies

Christian Pierdzioch¹  Jan Christoph Rülke² 

[1] Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, GermanyDepartment of Economics, WHU -Otto -Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany;

关键词: forecasts;    house prices;    housing starts;    herding;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijfs1010016

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.