The Impact of Climate, CO2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s

Sustainability

Andrew J. Wiltshire¹  Gillian Kay²  Jemma L. Gornall² 

[1] Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK;

关键词: climate;    carbon dioxide;    CO₂ fertilisation;    food security;    water resources;    population change;    Africa;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su5052129

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Population growth and climate change are likely to impact upon food and water availability over the coming decades. In this study we use an ensemble of climate simulations to project the implications of both these drivers on regional changes in food and water. This study highlights the dominant effect of population growth on per capita resource allocation over climate induced changes in our model projections. We find a strong signal for crop yield reductions due to climate change by the 2050s in the absence of CO₂ fertilisation effects. However, when these additional processes are included this trend is reversed. The impacts of climate on water resources are more uncertain. Overall, we find reductions in the global population living in water stressed conditions due to the combined effects of climate and CO₂. Africa is a key region where projected decreases in runoff and crop productivity from climate change alone are potentially reversed when CO₂ fertilisation effects are included, but this is highly uncertain. Plant physiological response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ is a major driver of the changes in crop productivity and water availability in this study; it is poorly constrained by observations and is thus a critical uncertainty.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.