Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Sharon L. Harlan³  Gerardo Chowell³  Shuo Yang²  Diana B. Petitti¹  Emmanuel J. Morales Butler³  Benjamin L. Ruddell⁴ 

[1] Department of Biomedical Informatics, Arizona State University, 13212 East Shea Boulevard, Scottsdale, AZ 85259, USA; E-Mail:;School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA; E-Mail:;School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA; E-Mails:;Department of Engineering and Computing Systems, Polytechnic School, Arizona State University, 330M Peralta Hall, Mesa, AZ 85212, USA; E-Mail:

关键词: apparent temperature;    climate;    gender;    heat-related deaths;    hot climate;    hot cities;    temperature threshold;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph110303304

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT_max) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between AT_max on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT_max = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (AT_max = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as AT_max at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (AT_max = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (AT_max = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (AT_max = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (AT_max = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.