Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Chengzhen Bao²  Mamat Mayila²  Zhenhua Ye²  Jianbing Wang²  Mingjuan Jin²  Wenjiong He¹  Kun Chen² 

[1] School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; E-Mail:;School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; E-Mails:

关键词: disease burden;    aged population;    China;    Grey model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph120707172

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Background: Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum. Methods: This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020. Results: After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend. Conclusions: The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.