Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Rebecca M. Garland¹  Mamopeli Matooane¹  Francois A. Engelbrecht¹  Mary-Jane M. Bopape¹  Willem A. Landman¹  Mogesh Naidoo¹  Jacobus van der Merwe¹  Caradee Y. Wright¹  Michael E. Goodsite² 

[1] Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa; E-Mails:Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa;

关键词: climate change;    human health;    Africa;    regional climate modelling;    climate services;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph121012577

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.