Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

Polar research

Peter Berg¹  Ralf Döscher²  Torben Koenigk³ 

[1] Hydrological Research UnitSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden;Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden;Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, SE-60176 Norrköping, SwedenCorrespondence

关键词: Arctic;    climate variability;    climate change;    regional climate modelling;    global climate modelling;    CORDEX;   

DOI  :  10.3402/polar.v34.24603

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Co-Action Publishing

【 摘 要 】

Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less st...

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC