An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models

Energies

Mingqi Zhang¹  Meirong Su¹  Weiwei Lu¹  Chunhua Su² 

[1] State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment/No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;School of Chemistry and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China;

关键词: energy security;    sustainability;    efficiency;    resilience;    natural gas supply system;    ecological network analysis;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en81212392

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In the context of climate change, natural gas is becoming increasingly important for low-carbon development in China. The gap between the demand and supply of natural gas, domestically, and China’s high dependence on foreign sources, highlights the importance of ensuring a secure system for supplying natural gas in the country. This study applied ecological network analysis, a powerful systems-oriented method, to simulate interactions between different nodes of the natural gas supply system and to evaluate the system’s security level. Two network models were constructed at the regional and national layers, respectively, by dividing external natural gas suppliers into multiple regions and countries. These models were used to evaluate the overall security level and related characteristics of China’s natural gas supply system from 2000 to 2012. The results showed stable improvement in the system’s security during this period. With the exceptions of some specific indicators (e.g., the mutualism index (MI)), analyses of network information and structure yielded the mostly similar results for the two models. In conclusion, a regional layer (RL) network model is considered more economical than a national layer (NL) model for evaluating the overall security of China’s natural gas supply system, especially when available data are limited.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.