Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012)

Climate Research

F. Estrada¹  R. E. Livezey¹  B. Martínez-López¹  C. Gay-Garc໚¹ 

关键词: Regional climate change scenarios;    Statistical downscaling;    National climate change documents;    Mexico;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr01154

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.

【 授权许可】

Unknown