Analysis of the evolution of precipitation in the Haihe river basin of China under changing environment

International Conference on Energy Engineering and Environmental Protection 2017

能源学;生态环境科学

Ding, Xiangyi^1,2 ; Liu, Jiahong^1,2 ; Gong, Jiaguo^1,2

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of the River Basin Water Cycle, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing

100038, China^1

Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing

100038, China^2

关键词: Evolution of precipitation;    Meteorological station;    Policies and measures;    Precipitation change;    Regional water resources;    Scientific references;    Statistical downscaling;    Sustainable utilization;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052004/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052004

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.