Projection of temperature over Korea using an MM5 regional climate simulation

Climate Research

Kyung-On Boo¹  Won-Tae Kwon¹  Gyo-Sook Koo¹ 

关键词: Global warming;    Future projection;    MM5;    A1B scenario;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr00825

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The present study dealt with the projection of future temperatures over Korea, using MM5 dynamic-downscaling simulation, for the period 1971–2100. MM5 simulations were based on the IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B scenario, which has been described in detail in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Regional climate projection showed that the annual mean value of daily mean temperatures will increase by 3.8°C between now and the 2071–2100 period. Comparing minimum and maximum temperatures, the change in minimum temperatures is expected to be larger (4.0°C) than that in maximum temperatures (3.5°C). Seasonally, the increase is projected to be greater in winter than in summer. Inter-annual variability is also projected to be higher in winter than in summer. In the troposphere, a rise in temperature shows a tendency to be greater with height; thus, increases are projected to reach a peak value of +4.5°C at 400 hPa. Frequency distributions of daily mean temperatures, showing an increase in the mean value without a change in variance, will reflect a change in temperature extremes. Hot events, based on the 95th percentile of the daily maximum temperatures, are expected to be intensified by 2.3°C and to be 5 times more frequent in the 2071–2100 period than in the 1971–2000 period. Cold events, based on the 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures, are predicted to become warmer by 5.3°C, and the number of days involved will be reduced by 99%. The rise in temperature  is projected to be associated with an increase in relative humidity of 2% and specific humidity of 29% near the surface over Korea by the end of the 21st century. The projections show consistency between temperature and humidity changes, at a rate of about 7% K^–1 of the moisture holding capacity.

【 授权许可】

Unknown