Projections of disability-adjusted life years for major diseases due to a change in vegetable intake in 2017–2040 in Japan

BMC Public Health

Hisayuki Uneyama¹  Naoki Hayashi²  Aya Ishizuka³  Peter Ueda⁴  Shuhei Nomura⁵  Shiori Tanaka⁶  Daisuke Yoneoka⁷  Kenji Shibuya⁸  Keiji Nakamura⁹ 

[1] Ajinomoto Co., Inc., Tokyo, Japan;Ajinomoto Co., Inc., Tokyo, Japan;Department of Applied Biological Chemistry, Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Clinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, 5-1-1 Tsukiji, Chuo-ku, 104-0045, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Institute for Population Health, King’s College London, London, UK;Graduate School of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, Yokohama, Japan;Ajinomoto Co., Inc., Tokyo, Japan;

关键词: Disability-adjusted life years;    Vegetable consumption;    Japan;    Future projection;    Cardiovascular diseases;    Cancer;    Diabetes and kidney diseases;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-10772-2

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundLow vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases.MethodsWe generated a three-component model of cause-specific DALYs, including changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors, the socio-demographic index and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to project future DALY rates for 2017–2040 using the data between 1990 and 2016. Data on Vegetable consumption and risk predictors, and DALY rate were obtained from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases Study in 2017. We also modelled three scenarios of better, moderate and worse cases to evaluate the impact of change in vegetable consumption on the DALY rates for three diseases (CVDs, cancer, and DKDs).ResultsProjected mean vegetable intake in the total population showed a decreasing trend through 2040 to 237.7 g/day. A significant difference between the reference scenario and the better case scenario was observed with un-overlapped 95% prediction intervals of DALY rates in females aged 20–49 years (− 8.0%) for CVDs, the total population for cancer (− 5.6%), and in males (− 8.2%) and females (− 13.7%) for DKDs.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that increased vegetable consumption would have a significant reduction in the burdens of CVDs, cancer and DKDs in Japan. By estimating the disease burden attributable to low vegetable intake under different scenarios of future vegetable consumption, our study can inform the design of targeted interventions for public health challenges.

【 授权许可】

CC BY