Sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to large perturbations in climate

Climate Research

Bo G. Gustafsson¹ 

关键词: Baltic Sea;    Salinity;    Climate;    River runoff;    Sea level;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr027237

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Potential future changes in the salinity of the Baltic Sea must be included in safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, water turnover along the coast, as well as the groundwaterhydrology and groundwater chemistry. The time-scales of nuclear waste repositories are extremely long, and climate forecasts must therefore encompass extreme variations. This study presents a model that enables computation of Baltic Sea salinity fordifferent sea level positions and freshwater supplies, thus making it possible to assess the impact of a given climatic change. A modest rise in global sea level (+1 m) would lead to a salinity increase from 8 to 9 in the southern Baltic Proper. Anincrease in the freshwater supply by about 2000 m³ s^-1 (approximately +10%) would result in a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase in the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 would reducethe salinity in the southern Baltic Proper to <1, i.e. large parts of the Baltic would become limnic. A 50% decrease in freshwater supply would double the salinity in the southern Baltic Proper to about 15; the effect is more pronounced in the BothnianSea and Bothnian Bay, where the salinity would increase from 6 to 13 and from 3.5 to 10, respectively.

【 授权许可】

Unknown