Adaptation principles of agriculture to climate change

Climate Research

Heino Tooming¹  Peeter Karing¹  Ain Kallis¹ 

关键词: Adaptation;    Model yields;    Micro-climate;    Potato;    Barley;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr012175

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: An analysis of climate change impacts on the level of agricultural production is presented based on long-term experimental data on yields of crops grown in different soils and climatic zones. Mathematical models combining available data on thebiology of agricultural crops and their response to climatic conditions have been used. The principle of maximum plant productivity is the basis of this modelling effort. The potential and meteorologically possible yields under existing environmentalconditions were calculated using the potato dynamic model POMOD. The analyses were completed under different climate change scenarios. According to the climate change scenarios HADCM2 and ECHAM3TR, mean potato yields will increase by about 6 to 8%. Theyield increase is larger (10 to 16%) on coastal islands and in North Estonia. A new approach and classification of micro-climate geo-complexes was developed. Agricultural production was found to be highly sensitive to micro-climatic variations. Theproposed approach permits more objective use of meteorological data in changing climatic conditions. Shifts in agroclimate were established using this modelling approach. The sums of degree-days, particularly above 0 and 5°C, have significantly risenduring the period 1807-1995. The development of potato varieties adapted to a changing climate is possible. A strategy for adaptation of agriculture to climate change is presented.

【 授权许可】

Unknown