Analysis of daily average PM10 predictions by generalized linear models in Brno, Czech Republic

Developmental Biology

Zuzana Huebnerova¹  Jaroslav Michalek¹ 

[1] Institute of Mathematics, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Brno University of Technology, Technicka 2896/2, 616 69 Brno, Czech Republic$$

关键词: PM10;    air pollution;    generalized linear model;    gamma distribution;    prediction;   

DOI  :  10.5094/APR.2014.055

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Dokuz Eylul Universitesi * Department of Environmental Engineering

【 摘 要 】

Ambient air quality assessment and management plays an important role in the current European Union policy. Among others, air pollution by PM₁₀ is being monitored. A previous analysis of PM₁₀ aimed at identifying factors affecting air pollution in stations in the City of Brno using available observed meteorological variables. However, the studied model cannot be used for predicting the level of PM₁₀ pollution because the included meteorological variables are not available exactly at the time when the prediction is requested. In that case, we should base the predictions on available predicted variables, namely on temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and cloud cover. A comparison of obtained predictions with the observed values of PM₁₀ during a testing period allows us to evaluate a loss of prediction quality when the predicted covariates are used instead of the observed ones. The presented analysis based on test of symmetry and test of homogeneity of the marginal distribution of two–way contingency tables shows that the loss of prediction quality by employing the predicted meteorological variables is non–significant in the studied case. This observation suggests that the model with predicted meteorological variables can be employed in environmental management processes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   

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