Local dimension and finite time prediction in coupled map lattices

Pramana

P Muruganandam1¹  G Francisco² 

[1] Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirapalli 620 024, India$$;Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, 01405-900 São Paulo-SP, Brasil$$

关键词: Coupled map lattices;    spatio-temporal chaos.;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：物理（综合）

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour. In this paper, we discuss the use of the bred vector (BV) dimension, a recently introduced statistics, to identify the regimes where a finite time forecast is feasible. Using the tools from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling, we show the finite time predictability in two-dimensional coupled map lattices in the regions of low BV dimension.

【 授权许可】

Unknown