Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperature and precipitation change in middle catchment of Sutlej River Basin, India

Journal of Earth system science

Dharmaveer Singh1¹  Sanjay K Jain2²  R D Gupta1 3¹ 

[1] GIS Cell, Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology, Allahabad 211 004, India.$$;Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 667, India.$$

关键词: Downscaling;    temperature;    precipitation;    SDSM;    CGCM3;    HadCM3.;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

Ensembles of two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and HadCM3, are used to project future maximum temperature (𝑇Max), minimum temperature (𝑇Min) and precipitation in a part of Sutlej River Basin, northwestern Himalayan region, India. Large scale atmospheric variables of CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different emission scenarios and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Variability and changes in 𝑇Max, 𝑇Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model are presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The study reveals rise in annual average 𝑇Max, 𝑇Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 for CGCM3 model as well as under A2 and B2 scenarios for HadCM3 model in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Increase in mean monthly 𝑇Min is also observed for all months of the year under all scenarios of both the models. This is followed by decrease in 𝑇Max during June, July August and September. However, the model projects rise in precipitation in months of July, August and September under A1B and A2 scenarios of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model for future periods.

【 授权许可】

Unknown