QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE AND DETERMINING FUTURE COASTAL DESIGN STORMS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Mahmudul Hassan¹  Tomas Shand⁵  Jason Evans⁶  Ron Cox²  William Leslie Peirson⁴  James E Ruprecht²  Nathan Guerry³ 

[1]Water Research LaboratorySchool of Civil and Environmental EngineeringThe University of New South WalesKing St., Manly Vale NSW 2093

[2]Climate Change Research CentreUniversity of New South WalesSydney, NSW, 2052Australia

[3]Water Research LaboratorySchool of Civil and Environmental EngineeringThe University of New South WalesKing St., Manly Vale NSW 2093AUSTRALIA

[4]Tonkin & Taylor LtdDDI: [phone], Mobile: [phone]Street: 105 Carlton Gore Road, Newmarket, Auckland

[5]Australian Climate Change Adaptation Network for Settlements and InfrastructureSchool of Civil and Environmental EngineeringThe University of New South WalesKensington NSW 2052

关键词: climate change;    coastal inundation;    design;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v34.management.26

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

Coastal inundation has both potential marine and inland contributions. Using a suite of Global Circulation Models, their skill in representing the key fundamental coastal engineering design forcings (mean sea level pressure, wind and precipitation) has been quantified at the 20 year ARI. Skill is assessed by comparison with measured and assembled data along the temperate east Australian coast. Clear extreme distributions are available from GCM output which show no sign of saturation within the tails of extreme distributions. Extreme surface pressures and winds are comparable with the available data giving confidence to the coastal engineering community that GCMs provide data that is suitable for coastal engineering design. GCMs also provide much longer and more detailed data than is available from equivalent measured records. When changes under the A2 scenario are considered, the consensus of the models is that little change in 20 year extreme surface pressures and rainfall are anticipated over the next 100 years with an accompanying 10% decrease in design wind.

【 授权许可】

Unknown