FUZZY MODEL OPTIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES DATA USING A TRANSLATION IN THE EXTENT OF MEAN ERROR | Science Publications

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

Nurhayadi¹  Subanar¹  Agus Maman Abadi¹  Abdurakhman¹ 

关键词: Fuzzy Model;    Time Series;    Model Translation;    Forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.3844/jmssp.2014.267.274

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

Recently, many researchers in the field of writing about the prediction of stock price forecasting, electricity load demand and academic enrollment using fuzzy methods. However, in general, modeling does not consider the model position to actual data yet where it means that error is not been handled optimally. The error that is not managed well can reduce the accuracy of the forecasting. Therefore, the paper will discuss reducing error using model translation. The error that will be reduced is Mean Square Error (MSE). Here, the analysis is done mathematically and the empirical study is done by applying translation to fuzzy model for enrollment forecasting at the Alabama University. The results of this analysis show that the translation in the extent of mean error can reduce the MSE.

【 授权许可】

Unknown